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Sometimes, not always, a dramatic line movement immediately after release is an indication that sharps are all over the opening number. Gambling911.com takes a look at the Week 1 games that may have been impacted early by the wiseguys. Be mindful that these sharps are not always right.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (Opened Saints -3.5)
Over the course of one week spanning May 12 through 18, the Saints were bet up from -3.5 to -4.5 and a few days later the line moved up another half point to -5. Most books had the line at -5.5 on the Tuesday before Game Day. BetUS is the only book we can find that had moved this one to -6. That could change.
Sagarin has the Falcons at the very bottom of their power ratings (32) coming in at 10.98. New Orleans (21) had a power rating of 19.40. Taking this week's 2.50 home field advantage to Atlanta, we get a line of New Orleans -6. As already stated, the line has been moving up towards 6 from 3.5 but most books were reluctant to hit the 6 as of Tuesday. 74% of the action was on New Orleans.
As a home underdog, Atlanta is 2-9 Straight Up since 2017, though this is not a big enough sampling. As an underdog, the Falcons are 13-28 SU (31.7%) since that time. As an away favorite since 2017, New Orleans is 20-5 Straight Up (80%).
For us, this is an early lean on New Orleans -5.5 even if we are siding heavily with the public. Maybe even better is Saints on the moneyline.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets (Opened Ravens -4.5)
A few books, BetUS and Caesars Sportsbook specifically, opened at -4. The line moved a whole point within 24 hours, an indication that sharps were on a feeding frenzy with Baltimore.
The news of Zach Wilson possibly sitting out this one impacted the line very little.
Sagarin had this one at Ravens -7. Baltimore (9) had a rating of 23.49. New York (28) had a power rating of 14.08.
The Ravens-Jets betting action was extremely lopsided as of midweek. Baltimore was seeing around 90% plus of the bets on the spread.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (Opened Chargers -4)
This one came down a half point within the first day of opening. The number has since come down to -3 and had been moving between -3 and -3.5.
Sagarin has a line of Chargers -6 with LA (6) having a power rating of 25.44 and Vegas (14) 22.16.
Action was balanced at the -4.
The Raiders are 4-2 in this series over the last six.
We would probably lean towards the LA Chargers here early on, but that could change.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (Opened Packers -2)
Bovada opened at -1.5 on May 15 and moved the line to -2.5 on June 13.
PointsBet opened at -1.5 and jumped to -2.5 on June 25.
Green Bay (5) had a power rating of 25.46. The Vikings (18) were coming in at 20.03. We arrive at a line of Green Bay -3.
Vikings were seeing better than 65% of the early action, hence the reason the number is coming down as we approach Sunday.
The Packers last three wins versus Minnesota were by 9 or more points. The Packers have won four of the last six in this series.
As an underdog, the Vikings are 10-20 Straight Up (33.3%) since 2017.
As a favorite, Green Bay is 44-13 SU (77.2%) since 2017.
This is an early lean for us on Green Bay.
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks (Opened Broncos -3.5)
Within a day, this one moved from -3.5 to -4 and a few days later -4.5.
Since that time the line has shot all the way up to -6.5. Nobody was hitting -7 just yet.
We get a line of Denver -9. Sagarin had Denver (7) with a rating of 24.57 and Seattle (29) a rating of 13.13.
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
