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It’s the 10-6 Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the 11-7 Buffalo Bills, a 2-7 AFC seeding in Sunday’s first of three NFL wild-card games. Since it’s western New York, here’s the early weather… 50-50 chance of snow, high in the mid-20’s.
Pittsburgh needed a ton of help to sneak into the playoffs, but that’s exactly what happened. The Steelers did take care of business on their end as well, having ended the season with three wins in a row,
Buffalo finished the year by winning its last five, overhauling the Miami Dolphins to win a fourth consecutive AFC East title.
Buffalo is a wild-card-round-largest 10-point favorite (total at 35½), according to NFL odds.
Moneyline is Bills -550, Steelers at +415.
Pittsburgh is leading the all-time series (including postseason), 17-12.
Steelers vs Bills Predictions | NFL Wild Card Game Analysis & Picks @BetUS_Official https://t.co/kSHw3gnL7b via @YouTube
— gambling911 (@gambling911) January 11, 2024
Steelers Struggle Scoring
The lowest-scoring team in the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers averaged just 17.9 points per game (T-27th in league) during the season. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to find a quarterback to consistently lead the team, the ground game perhaps the better option here.
Pittsburgh averaged just 186.1 passing yards/game (25th in league). Expect the Buffalo Bills to make them try to throw the ball in this game. It’s been Mason Rudolph at quarterback during the late-season run, three touchdown passes without an interception in the last three.
Running back Najee Harris did crack the 1,000-yard plateau (1,035 yards, eight touchdowns). 234 yards (three touchdowns) in the last two.
Pittsburgh’s defense did its job,19.1 points/game (T-sixth in league)total points per game. However,surrendering 342.1 yards/game (21st in league) meant the other guys were able to move the ball. All-Pro linebacker T.J. Watt’s knee injury forces him to miss this contest, however.
Bills “Stole” Division
Mediocre during much of the season, the Buffalo Bills are coming in hot. Buffalo disposed of the Dolphins at Miami (Gardens) in the final game of the regular season, pilfering the AFC East in the process.
Quarterback Josh Allen (4,306 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 18 interceptions) only went three games without a pick, Do not discount 524 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns on the ground.
There were 1,00-yard performers in running back James Cook (1,122 yards, two touchdowns) and wide receiver Stefon Diggs (107 receptions, 1,183 yards, eight touchdowns).
Defensively stingy (18.3 points/game, fourth in NFL), Buffalo is top-10 (307.2 yards/game) in yardage surrendered, too. Add in 54 sacks (fourth in league).
Bet the Bills
Buffalo is 11-4 (+275) to win the AFC, while Pittsburgh is 50-1 (+5000), as per NFL conference odds.
It was remarkable that the Pittsburgh Steelers made the postseason, however lacking offense is going to hurt them. Pittsburgh’s defense is obviously missing T.J. Watt, but needs to keep this game close if the visitors have any shot.
Buffalo was on fire to end the season, clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen is taken to continue carrying this team.
Laying such large numbers is not always prudent, especially in the playoffs. However, that’s the way to go in this game.
Take the Buffalo Bills -10 to dispose of the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday afternoon.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
