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The Atlanta Falcons are sorta becoming the latest craze in the NFL....well, quarterback Matt Ryan is anyway. Following a dismal season last year wrought with controversies involving Michael Vick's dog fighting conviction and the head coach deserting his team for the college ranks, Atlanta is starting anew and they are also starting the season 2-1.
This week they take on a team widely talked about as potentially winning the 2009 Super Bowl, the Carolina Panthers.
SBG Global had the Panthers listed with +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl, paying $2500 for every $100 bet. The Falcons, incidentally, would pay $6000 for every $100 bet if they were to somehow win it. Stranger things have happened. The New York Giants won last year's Super Bowl with much longer odds than the Falcons early on.
This line opened at Carolina -7 and has not moved off that line anywhere, including SBG Global.
Just shy of 70 percent of the betting action was on Carolina while a lot of the money line action was on Atlanta to win straight up paying $260 for every $100 bet. The bookies will be wanting Atlanta in this one, though a Carolina cover won't be too painful.
Because this is a divisional game, there is plenty of recent historical trends related directly to this series.
The road team has won the last 5 games. Unfortunately, that is the only consistent data since Atlanta and Carolina routinely alternate wins and some have been by much larger margins than others. Lately, however, Atlanta has been able to cover within 7 points. They have done so over the last two years of play. There were two wins and two losses by 7 points.
Some interesting overall stats to review: The Falcons are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The Falcons are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC South.
Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. However, they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The Panthers first two games of the season were won by 2 and 3 points, respectively. They lost by 10 points in Minnesota last week.
One thing that stands out like a sore thumb to us is Atlanta's 9-24 loss in Tampa during Week 2. So far they have been successful against two of the league's worst teams: Kansas City and Detroit, both at home. Was the loss to Tampa just a fluke or is Atlanta not quite there yet?
We may have to lean towards the fluke theory since the Falcons are starting to look pretty good these days.
Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan had his second strong outing in three games, validating the new regime's decision to start him early in his career.
The Falcons are not asking Ryan to win the games with his arm. Their plan is to soften up defenses with their rushing attack and then let Ryan attack through the air. He's made good on his selective shots down the field in two games.
The Carolina Panthers rebuilt their offensive line this past off-season, but on Sunday it looked like there were a few cracks in the foundation that need fixing.
The Panthers hope to get that this week with the return of left guard Travelle Wharton, their second-highest paid offensive lineman.
After 11 false start penalties in the last two weeks and a horrendous showing that included five sacks in Sunday's 20-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the Panthers will be thrilled to welcome back Wharton to practice on Wednesday. He's missed the last two games with a sprained knee, forcing Geoff Hangartner to fill in, representing a bit of a drop off.
Gambling911.com believes the line on this game should have been Carolina -7 ½, so the odds makers have it pretty much on the money with either a push or one point differential in the score highly probable.
Needless-to-say, it's a hard game to bet. Strong points to look at, however, are Atlanta's ability to win or not lose by more than the current spread over their last 4 games in this series when Atlanta was arguably a much worse team than they are now. Carolina being 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games is another reason why Atlanta should be considered as a team that could cover here. Carolina being 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss is the only thing that really stands out favoring the Panthers here.
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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
