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While controversial, the prediction market Polymarket continues to offer trading on when US forces enter Iran.
65% believe it will happen by April 30 and 71% believe it will happen at some point this year (by December 31).
That is hardly reassuring.
Amid the US-Israeli war with Iran, now over a month since February 28 airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and top officials, recent Pentagon orders for 10,000 ground troops—including Marines and 82nd Airborne—to the Gulf have intensified invasion fears, signaling potential ground operations against Iranian missile sites or Kharg Island.
Iranian retaliatory drone and missile attacks wounded 12 US troops at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27, prompting further US reinforcements.
Tehran has mobilized one million soldiers, while President Trump's envoys signal imminent talks and Secretary Rubio insists no ground troops are needed, with the conflict projected to last weeks, not months. Traders monitor diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalations like Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Polymarket has offered everything on the current conflict from a ceasefire to the price of crude oil.
Concerns over insider trading have led both Polymarket and Kalshi to add preventive measures to their platforms.
Kalshi said it would ban political candidates from trading on their own campaigns.
In a statement, a Kalshi spokesperson said the company’s new features “further demonstrate our commitment to safe markets.”
Polymarket also instituted its own set of bans and rules. The company rewrote its rules to say clearly that users cannot trade on contracts where they might possess confidential information or could influence the outcome of an event. These rules would also apply to sports contracts.
The Price of Gas and Crude Oil
Here is South Florida, gas prices remained mostly steady between $3.69 and $3.99 for regular with few stations going above the $4.00 mark.
Gas prices have gone up between 25% and 35% on average across the U.S. since the start of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. That equates to around a dollar.
Most traders at Polymarket believe the price of crude oil will stay around $90 to $110.
75% of traders believe the price of gas will hit the $4.00 mark by March 31. $100 on the NO pays out $380 as of early Sunday morning.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
