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Lawmakers have rallied around British Prime Minister Keir Starmer after some in his center-left party questioned the PM's judgment in appointing Peter Mendelson to the high-profile diplomatic post in 2024 despite his ties to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Starmer fired Mandelson in September after published emails revealed his friendship with Epstein.
A new trove of Epstein files released by authorities in the United States on Jan. 30 revealed more details about the relationship and put new pressure on Starmer.
Traders at the prediction market Kalshi have Starmer resigning by July with around a 57% chance.
The leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, Anas Sarwar, joined calls for Starmer's resignation Monday, saying “there have been too many mistakes” and “the leadership in Downing Street has to change.”
Starmer’s chief of staff and his communications director have also quit in quick succession. But Starmer insisted he will not step down.
“Every fight I have ever been in, I’ve won,” he told Labour lawmakers at a meeting in Parliament.
“I’m not prepared to walk away from my mandate and my responsibility to my country,” he added.
Documents published last week by the U.S. Justice Department newly suggest Mandelson shared sensitive government information with Epstein after the 2008 global financial crisis, and include records of payments totaling $75,000 in 2003 and 2004 from Epstein to accounts linked to Mandelson or his husband. There are also chatty, jokey messages pointing to a much closer relationship with Epstein than Mandelson had disclosed.
Kalshi Rules
If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from Prime Minister's Office, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and NBC.
An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
