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The balance of power for the 2026 Midterms has the Democrats now taking both chambers according to Polymarket.
While even Republican lawmakers have most accepted they will lose control of the House, barring some unforeseen reversal of fortune on the horizon, the Senate has mostly been either party's to take over these last few weeks.
With close to $800,000 in trading volume thus far, the Republicans chances had dropped to 53%, down from 65% in early February. Polymarket was now forecasting the Democrats to take control and trading volume should favor that party by month's end.
"Democrats now projected to seize control of both chambers of Congress this November," Polymarket tweeted out on Friday morning.
The "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democrats Sweep" at 48%, followed by "R Senate, D House" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
