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Did he or didn't he?
A first time trader on the prediction market platform Kalshi is crying foul.
@CarOnPolymarket says he placed trades on a Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders "Mention" market during an appearance in Greensboro, North Carolina this past week.
I bet on a few words he said during the live event.
Most of the words were trading at 90%, but Kalshi resolved EVERY SINGLE word to NO.
Why? I don' t know. The event was live, Bernie said the words and traders bought Yes.
Kalshi has not said a single word since.
Some of these mentions included the obvious: "Trump," "Billionaire," "Middle Class," "Elon / Musk," and "Working Class.".
Kalshi graded these as NO apparently.
"Yesterday I lost $300 on my first bet ever on Kalshi," @CarOnPolymarket reveals.
"24 hours later I still don't know why I lost. I hear Bernie clearly say the words I bet on.
"A total of $3M+ was wagered on this event, people lost millions against reality."
Audio and video exists that reportedly shows Sanders using these exact words (mentions).
Quasa explained Kalshi's rationale for grading these as "No":
The devil, as always, was in the details — or rather, the fine print. Kalshi's rules for the market specified that resolutions would be based primarily on video from the event, but if unclear, they would rely on transcripts from approved sources: major outlets like The New York Times, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and NBC.
The rally, part of Sanders' "Fighting Oligarchy Tour," was held in a closed format at the Carolina Theatre, with mainstream press reportedly barred from attending. Without coverage from these outlets, Kalshi deemed there were no verifiable sources to confirm the mentions, leading to the "No" resolution.
It's like the old saying, “If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”
In the case of the Sanders rally, legacy media were not there to hear him speak, therefore he didn't say these things.... at least that is Kalshi's take.
Other video and audio be damned.
- Jagajeet Chiba, Gambling911.com
