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When it comes to the passage of that "big beautiful bill", few have been more instrumental in explaining the ramifications of said bill for gamblers - in particular poker players - than Phil Galfond.
You'd be hard pressed to find anyone in the gambling sector who actually likes this legislation, outside of say a few offshore sports betting and poker websites. There is also the American Gaming Association, but they have their own agenda as always.
Galfond, one of the most successful poker players today, believes some will call it quits.
I thought the tax changes would end pro poker. For some, they will. Others survive.
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) July 5, 2025
I ran real data to help my students plan. Sharing here for anyone it might help. pic.twitter.com/aHf82ivC9S
The new soon-to-be-law would go into effect early next year. Instead of being able to deduct 100 percent of gambling losses. only 90% of losses can now be deducted against 100% of winnings.
This creates "phantom income", even if you break even overall, you might owe taxes on up to 10% of your reported winnings.
Does this mean nobody can make a living playing poker?
Galfond claims the data he is relying on comes from approximately 75 percent pros and 25 percent serious recreational players tracked over a period of time.
One individual tracked was paying $11,000 in taxes. They are now going to pay $47,000 in tax, assuming the same results.
"You can go down the list, I would say the median, somewhere in the 15% range or so, there are some ugly one's. The median is 22 percent more tax," Galfond explains.
Bitcoin Punter responded to Galfond's well thought out assessment.
"I think your conclusions make sense with the current level of liquidity in the poker marketplace. The category you list “already have a job/side income” is the primary source of $ for winning poker players. New setup adds rake even for losing players, so win rates won’t be equiv."
Tyler Wells writes:
"A legend you are, indeed. But, damn you need to become a politician and represent the people. I know you’re a legend, but move one - the change you can actually make in people’s lives is significant. If the gambling world trust you. Imagine how “normal” folk would trust you."
Folks still have questions as to how Galfond is arriving at his numbers.
"How do you know that the way the accounting must work is on a day to day basis?," asked Dr. L. Paul Strait.
"I’m trusting the advice of some CPAs. This is how it currently works with gambling tax, as I understand it. You track sessions (days) individually and add them up," Galfond explained.
"Currently, only the final result matters, but it would change under this new law."
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