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The Atlanta Falcons have gone from a -3 home favorite to -1.5 versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for this Thursday Night Football game.
Sagarin this week is featuring a home field advantage of just 0.56 and arrives at a number of Atlanta 0.96, placing this one right on the money. This bodes well for the favorite based on our own model results, though a number of similar scenarios last week failed to come through.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Betting Preview
Tampa is 6-2 Straight Up versus Atlanta over the last eight meetings.
Buccaneers player to watch
WR Mike Evans became Tampa Bay’s all-time leading scorer last week and has compiled some impressive numbers against Atlanta. In 18 games against the Falcons, Evans has 92 receptions for 1,407 yards and 11 touchdowns. Among active players, it’s the fourth-most receiving yards against an opponent. Evans is first with 1,480 against Carolina, followed by Travis Kelce, who has 1,472 against Denver and 1,424 vs. Las Vegas. Evans was limited in practice during the short week by knee and calf issues.
Evans receiving yards total is coming in at 59.5.
Starting quarterback Baker Mayfield's Over/Under passing yards is listed at 234.5.
Falcons player to watch
QB Kirk Cousins has logged two game-winning drives despite uneven production through his first four games after signing a four-year, $180 million contract that included $100 million in guaranteed money. Cousins has four TD passes and four interceptions and couldn't produce a touchdown as the Falcons leaned on their defense and special teams to beat the Saints. Most troubling is the Falcons' continued inability to convert third downs. The Falcons were 4 of 11 on third down against the Saints and are 10 of 38 (26.3%) on the season. The spotlight is on Cousins to generate more offense against Tampa Bay.
BetUS has Cousins passing yards total at 234.5.
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