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Following the Miami Dolphins upset of the New England Patriots on the road, the San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins game suddenly becomes relevant as do the betting odds on this showdown as this was one of the most wagered on games early in the week.
San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins betting odds opened at Chargers -7. They were the road favorites and the line has since moved down to -6 ½ and even -6 at a handful of online sports books.
Despite the Dolphins strong showing against New England, 90 percent of the betting action is going towards San Diego.
Check out this stat: Miami has beaten San Diego 6 of the last 7 times dating back to 1995. The Dolphins only loss during this time period was at home by 3 points where they were actually a small 3 point favorite. In 2005, the Dolphins were a +12 ½ underdog in San Diego when they beat the Chargers by two points. One would have to go back 10 games in this series to find a time when San Diego beat Miami by more than 3 points.
These are impressive stats when considering the idea that Miami could be in the process of turning things around. In reality, the Dolphins didn't look bad in their first loss against the Jets during Week 1. It was that Week 2 game verses Arizona that made everyone believe this was going to be the same 'ol Dolphins team from last year. Then came that dismantling of New England on the road. Still, there are serious questions surrounding this Dolphins team that we simply do not know the answers to.
The Sagarin ratings would have San Diego, at best, a 3 point favorite in Miami. The idea that you can still get Miami at +6 1/2 courtesy of BetOnline.com is enticing.
The Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up and ATS win. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. San Diego is also 41-17-3 ATS in their last 61 games on grass and 37-16-4 ATS in their last 57 vs. AFC. Those are impressive stats to be sure.
The Dolphins are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win, which is not entirely bad considering how awful Miami has been in recent times. They are also 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Looking back to last year, the Chargers only won two games on the road in a decisive fashion, and one of those teams was Kansas City (that's not saying much). San Diego last week beat Oakland on the road, but that is only half the story. The Chargers has to rally from a rather large point deficit to finally win 28-18 against a team that quite frankly isn't very good. It's a gamble for us to offer an opinion on the Miami Dolphins here, but we can't hold back here either. This one is just too good to pass up. We may learn Miami is still that same bad team from last year... but our bet is on the Dolphins covering.
