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There is an argument to be had as to whether one should bet the Dallas Cowboys as a +6.5 home underdog in their Sunday Night Football game against Green Bay.
As a home underdog the Cowboys have managed to go 4-8 Against The Spread since 2020.
That might not be the most comforting stat.
One thing that really stands out for Sunday night's game is that the action is especially lopsided favoring Green Bay on the spread and the trend has been from -7 to -6.5 Packers.
AcePerHead's proprietary odds, which provides a glimpse into some of the sharpest action online, has Green Bay seeing greater than 71 percent of the money and 81 percent of the bet volume on the Packers.
Sunday Night Football September 28, 2025
Winners and Whiners does like Green Bay.
Last week, the Packers’ offensive line was under huge pressure, which caused some injuries. However, the Cowboys’ defensive line is not at the same level as the Browns’, so I expect the Packers to get the job done at AT&T Stadium.
Green Bay is arguably a much better defensive team than Dallas. The Packers allow just 64.3 rushing yards (3rd in the NFL) and 168.0 passing yards per game (7th). On the other side, the Cowboys surrender 109.7 rushing yards (17th) and 288.0 passing yards per game (32nd).
The Cowboys’ pass defense has been awful thus far. Dallas ranks 28th in the league in sacks (4) and 31st in opposing passer rating (125.3). The Cowboys allow way too many big plays, so I’m not surprised by a 6.5-point spread.
Our own model doesn't give either team much of an edge. We get a line of Green Bay -6, suggesting the slightest of overlays in the 6.5/7 range. Yes, these tend to favor the dog (8-13 or 62%) with our sample over the last two seasons.
None of the top cappers we follow who have been on fire of late are offering a play on this game.
We'll settle for our earlier win on the Giants and a seven straight wins with our NFL picks (scroll all the way down for more).
A preview of Monday night's games show the following:
Jets @ Dolphins - Action was balanced with the line moving from Miami -3 to -2.5. That's a 1 point overlay as we get a number of 1.64 Miami.
Bengals @ Broncos - Action is very lopsided favoring Denver (83% or more on the spread).
The line has moved from Denver -7 to -7.5. Our line comes in at 4.61 but does not fully take into account the Joe Burrow injury. Burrow (turf toe) could return mid-December.
As of Sunday night, Gambling911.com is not overly excited about either of these games, but do stay tuned.
Sunday September 28 (Late Games)
The Bears and Ravens were each seeing better than 60% of the action in their respective games.
The Packers were seeing very lopsided action at -6.5 in Dallas. The number was coming off the -7 and all books appeared to be trending in this direction Sunday morning.
Consensus cappers were on the Cowboys.
Our number came in at Green Bay 6, indicating the slightest of overlays.
Ravens @ Chiefs
The Chiefs are a rare home dog here at +2.5, yet our line is -1.5.
Our model does not provide an edge here and consensus cappers are all over Baltimore.
Sunday September 28
Most lopsided action:
Bills (87%) vs. Saints, Lions (88%) - no line move off Detroit -10 vs. Browns, Texans (76%) -6.5 to -7 vs. Titans, Chargers (86%) at Giants with line moving from -6.5 to -6 at recreational book Bovada while hanging at -6.5 at BetOnline.
Chargers @ Giants
We get a line of LA -4.5, so definitely an overlay here. Our model gives the dog (New York) a slight advantage here.
From The Action Network:
I'm taking the Giants +6.5 against the Chargers this week.
The Chargers' offensive line is banged-up entering this matchup, and that certainly doesn't bode well against the Giants' elite defensive front.
Plus, the switch from Wilson to Dart at quarterback should be all upside for the Giants. He can't be worse than Wilson was the last few weeks, right?
The Giants enter this matchup with a bunch of uncertainty. But what we do know is their quarterback should be much more mobile moving forward, and I expect him to be more accurate as well.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants pull off the upset here, but either way, I do think it's going to be a lot closer than people think.
We've seen this same song and dance from the Chargers before. They play these tight one-score games over and over again. This game will likely be no different.
So, I’m going to buy low on a winless Giants' team at home in this spot.
A few other top cappers are on the Giants today as well, though the consensus cappers are mixed.
Thursday September 25
Seahawks vs. Cardinals -
Last week, Arizona was listed as the -2.5 home favorite. By Thursday, they were a +1.5 home dog.
The Seahawks had moved to -2.5 and were seeing 68% of the action on the spread at this number.
Both teams are sitting at 2-1 on the year and their only loss came to the San Francisco 49ers. Each wants to avoid dropping to 0-2 in division play.
We have the wrong team favored as our number comes in at Arizona -1. This can also be considered an overlay of 3.5 for the favorite Seattle.
With our model sampling, there is not much of an edge when it comes to wrong teams favored or overlays in the 2.5/3 range.
Zay Jones suffered a concussion on the Cardinals' final offensive play against the 49ers, the third-down play that Jones could have had a first down if he had held on to the football. Perhaps the head injury contributed to the late drop. He was unable to practice all week and remains in concussion protocol.
The Cardinals also lost James Conner for the year, and they might be without Paris Johnson Jr. again.
Seattle has won the last seven in this series.
Monday September 22
The Ravens were seeing greater than 65% of the spread action.
The line was coming in at Detroit -4.5. That's actually an underlay as we get a number of 5.31.
This one is dropping off the -6, which suggests books are encouraging action on Baltimore.
Some of the top cappers we follow are all over Detroit here.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (62-53-2)
September 28 - LA Chargers vs. New York Giants - Giants +6.5 (WIN)
September 27 - Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Washington Huskies - Washington +8 (LOSS)
September 26 - Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers - Virginia +7 (WIN)
September 25 - No Picks
September 24 - Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -145 (WIN)
September 23 - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -168 (LOSS)
September 22 - Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens - Lions +4.5 (WIN)
September 21 - Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns - Browns +7.5 (WIN)
September 21 - Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders - Commanders -3 (WIN)
September 21 - LA Rams vs. Philadlphia Eagles - Eagles -3 (WIN)
September 21 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers - Panthers +4.5 (WIN)
September 20 - Maryland Terrapins +10 Wisconsin Badgers - Wisconsin -10 (LOSS)
September 20 - Florida Gators +7.5 Miami - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 20 - SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs - TCU -7 (WIN)
September 19 - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Rutgers Scarlett Knights - Rutgers +2.5 (LOSS)
September 18 - Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills - Bills -11.5 (LOSS)
September 17 - NO PICKS
September 16 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers - Guardians +122 (WIN)
September 15 - Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
September 15 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings - Falcons +3.5 (LOSS)
September 15 - Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets - Jets +6.5 (LOSS)
September 14 - Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers -3 ()
September 13 - Texas A&M Aggies vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Notre Dame -6.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Georgia Tech +3 (WIN)
September 12 - Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 9 (WIN)
September 11 - Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers - Commanders +3.5 (LOSS)
September 10 - No Picks Today
September 9 - Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 8 - Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics - Red Sox -160 (WIN)
September 8 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers - Brewers (LOSS)
September 7 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets - Steelers -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Illinois vs. Duke - Duke -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs - SMU -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State - NC State -2.5 (WIN)
September 5 - Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers - Chiefs -3 (LOSS)
September 4 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays -160 (WIN)
September 3 - Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 2 - Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Athletics -107 (LOSS)
September 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 - Dodgers -165 (LOSS)
September 1 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 9 (LOSS)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 (LOSS)
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
