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Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Thursday August 28, 2025.
Thursday August 28
Yankees vs. White Sox
From ESPN:
Will Warren's streak of five straight solid efforts was interrupted by the Boston Red Sox in his last outing. He went into the game with a 1.93 ERA and 1.11 ERA over his prior 28 frames. Look for Warren to get back on track when the New York Yankees visit the Chicago White Sox. The South Siders have been more productive lately, but for the season (a more reliable sample), they sport the third-lowest wOBA facing right-handers.
Unfortunately, the price is still steep on New York at -185, slightly above our cutoff point of -180.
Wednesday August 27
Red Sox @ Orioles
We have seen this line drop from Boston -155 to -136 despite as much as 65% of the action on Boston. Some top cappers are on the Oriles.
Baltimore is only winning 40% of their recent games while Boston is 5-1 in their last six games overall, winning the last two against Baltimore.
Baltimore Orioles career statistics vs. Brayan Bello is .229 in 48 at bats with just one homer.
From The Action Network:
The Red Sox offense has cooled off a bit in August. They rank 12th overall in wRC+ for the season, but have fallen to 18th this month with a 98 rating.
Meanwhile, the Orioles are one of the worst run-producing lineups this month, with an 82 wRC+ that has them in the 27th spot.
They will have to go against Boston's Brayan Bello, who holds a 2.75 ERA in his last 15 starts and is coming off a stellar performance versus the Yankees, with seven scoreless innings and only three hits allowed.
They add that, despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
From ESPN:
Brayan Bello's 3.07 ERA is deemed over a run too low via xFIP and SIERA. A pedestrian strikeout rate puts Bello at risk, but he's helped himself by exhibiting above-average command and control. Bello has pitched at least six innings in 14 of his 23 outings, adding to his points league allure. Bello has a tough road date with the Baltimore Orioles on tap, but the Orioles are without three regulars and are auditioning several youngsters, which will help Bello navigate the lineup.
Action was 65% on the Over here.
The total here is 9 and none of the last six games in this series have resulted in runs above this number.
We will be on the Under 9 here
Monday August 25
Rays vs. Guardians
The total has dropped from 8.5 to 7.5.
Six of the last seven in this series have stayed Under 7.5.
Seven of the last Guardians games, Cleveland has scored 3 or fewer runs.
Mets vs. Phillies
Despite 77% or more on the Over, the total moved from 8 to 7.5.
There is heavy handicapping action on the Phillies.
PITCHING PROBABLES: Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.41 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 169 strikeouts); Mets: Kodai Senga (7-5, 2.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 99 strikeouts)
Also from The Action Network:
The Mets could struggle to solve Sanchez, as he flashes the strikeout stuff with a 95th percentile ranking in ground-ball rate. He's also maintained his strong walk rate from last year, issuing 2.18 BB/9 in both seasons. He's boosted his K/9 by over two strikeouts per nine, while keeping his walk rate the same.
The fact that Sanchez hasn't sacrificed his command to boost his strikeouts speaks to how dominant of a hurler he is.
Meanwhile, the Phillies' bats have dominated in August, posting a 122 wRC+ — the fourth best in MLB. They are crushing the ball out of the park, ranking fourth with 34 homers and second with a .207 ISO. Neither is above the figure the Mets have this month, but it's nothing to sneeze at.
The Phillies line has shot up from -105 to -130.
Philadlephia has won seven of its last ten games overall while New York has won half of theirs.
In 111 at bats, the Mets batters have five home runs against him.
Philadelphia Phillies career statistics vs. Kodai Senga are just .122 against Mets hitters in 40 at bats.
Braves vs. Marlins
This one dropped from 8 to 7.5 despite moderate action on the Over.
Top cappers are all over the Marlins with the line moving from +125 to +104 with much of the action on Miami.
Reds vs. Dodgers
PITCHING PROBABLES: Reds: Hunter Greene (5-3, 2.63 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 91 strikeouts); Dodgers: Emmet Sheehan (4-2, 4.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 44 strikeouts)
The line on this game has dropped from Dodgers -145 to -133.
From ESPN:
"Dodger Stadium will be a welcome site for Emmet Sheehan after struggling in a couple of road affairs, including last time out at Coors Field. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds in the opener of a series with playoff implications for both clubs. The Reds sport an average offense facing right-handers and will incur a park downgrade from hitter friendly Great American Ballpark."
Six of eight of the last games in this series have stayed Under the total of 8.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (43-33-2)
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
