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Six trading accounts on Polymarket won around $1.2 million by correctly predicting the U.S. would strike Iran on February 28.
But was there anything nefarious involved?
Maybe. Maybe not.
Savvy traders - or even those who simply follow the news on a regular basis - could have seen this one coming a mile away.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been warning of a potential strike on Iran in recent weeks. The rhetoric escalated in the days immediately leading up to Saturday's strike on Iran.
The U.S. and Israel launched a major attack on Iran on Saturday, and President Donald Trump issued a televised address shortly thereafter.
Some of the first strikes on Iran appeared to hit areas around the offices of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Smoke could be seen rising from the capital as part of strikes that Iranian media said occurred nationwide. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the 86-year-old leader was in his offices when the attack occurred.
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations,” Trump said in a video announcing “major combat operations.” “For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it.”
The strikes during the holy fasting month of Ramadan opened a stunning new chapter in U.S. intervention in Iran and marked the second time in eight months that the Trump administration has used military force against the Islamic Republic.
In a post on X, blockchain analyzer Bubblemaps said most of the wallets that traded on the Iran airstrike were funded within the last 24 hours before the attack and bought “Yes” shares in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.
From CoinDesk:
One Polymarket account Bubblemaps pointed to purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out near $560,000 after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.
Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract reached nearly $90 million, part of more than $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December.
Concerns over potential insider trading has increased as interest in these prediction markets explodes.
Kalshi said it suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of show outcomes.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
