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The Friday morning arrest of journalist Don Lemon led to some prediction market traders cashing out. Overall, the prediction markets did not see this one coming as only 34% of those participating in the "Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?" betting market had Lemon at Kalshi.
Granted, these numbers were closer to 70% last week but had cooled in recent days.
The betting against a Don Lemon arrest followed a federal magistrate judge rejection of prosecutors’ bid last Thursday to charge Lemon related to the protest at a church in St. Paul, Minnesota. Lemon and his attorneys publicly said he was there as a journalist.
Then Friday's news came.

Lemon was arrested by federal agents in Los Angeles, where he had been covering the Grammy Awards, his attorney Abbe Lowell said. It is unclear what charge or charges Lemon and the others are facing in the Jan. 18 protest at the Cities Church in St. Paul. Lemon’s arrest came after a magistrate judge last week rejected prosecutors’ initial bid to charge him.
Lemon, who was fired from CNN in 2023, has said he has no affiliation to the organization that went into the church and that he was there as a journalist chronicling protesters.
“Don has been a journalist for 30 years, and his constitutionally protected work in Minneapolis was no different than what he has always done,” Lowell said in a statement. “The First Amendment exists to protect journalists whose role it is to shine light on the truth and hold those in power accountable.”

Attorney General Pam Bondi posted on social media Friday morning confirming the arrest of Lemon and the others who were present during the protest at the church where a local official with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement serves as a pastor.
“At my direction, early this morning federal agents arrested Don Lemon, Trahern Jeen Crews, Georgia Fort, and Jamael Lydell Lundy, in connection with the coordinated attack on Cities Church in St. Paul, Minnesota,” Bondi said.
Since he left CNN, Lemon has joined the legion of journalists who have gone into business for himself, posting regularly on YouTube.
Shortly after the first attempt to charge him fell through, he predicted on his show that the administration would try again.
“And guess what,” he said, “here I am. Keep trying. That’s not going to stop me from being a journalist. That’s not going to diminish my voice. Go ahead, make me into the new Jimmy Kimmel, if you want. Just do it. Because I’m not going anywhere.”
This is a fluid story.
- Jordan Bach, Gambling911.com