Why We Think South Carolina Covers the Spread Against Clemson on Saturday

What’s at stake for the Clemson vs. South Carolina game, you may be asking.

Perhaps a spot in the College Football Playoff for both teams.

South Carolina and Clemson have done plenty of winning the past couple of months, perhaps enough to vault the Gamecocks or the Tigers in the 12-team field.

A South Carolina win would be its sixth straight and fourth over a ranked opponent in that stretch. A Clemson victory would be its 10th in the past 11 games since a season-opening, 34-3 beatdown by Georgia.

But is the Line Correct?

Sagarin gives us a line of Clemson 1.77 and even has the Gamecocks the better team if this were to be played on a neutral field.

The actual line has ranged between Tigers -2.5 and -3.  There's been a 2 here and there.  We don't have a movement in either direction.  It's back and forth.  The overlay is ever so slight.  We'd call this one an overlay being that much of the betting public will get the number at Tigers -2.5 or -3.

For the NFL, overlays in this range tend to perform especially well for the dog.  That's not necessarily the case in college however.

The betting public does like South Carolina to cover here.

Comparables

We would only consider games with a slight overlay or that were on the money where the road team was the dog and the line only moved between +2.5 and +3, though a line of just +2.5 and those that have trended specifically either +2.5 to +3 or vice versa suffices as well.

For us these are the closes comparison games:

• Seahawks +3/+2.5 Falcons (Falcons 2.13 On The Money) - Road dog covers.
• Las Vegas +2.5 / +3 Denver (road dog Las Vegas covers and wins) Denver 2.97 On the Money - Road dog covers.

We like these because there was no specific trend.  The line would move between the 2.5 and 3.

These fit the bill:

• Washington +2 to +2.5 Rutgers (Rutgers 2.72 On The Money) - Home favorite covers.
• Duke +2.5 Northwestern (Northwestern 0.81 Overlay) - Road dog covers.
• Georgia State +2.5 to +3 UL Lafayette (UL Lafayette 2.38 On The Money - Road dog covers.
• Oklahoma State +2.5 Baylor (road dog Oklahoma State covers and wins by a lot) Baylor 3.3 On the Money - Road dog covers.
• Mississippi State +2.5 Ole Miss (road dog Miss State wins outright) Ole Miss 0.82 Overlay of 1.5  - Road dog covers.
• Chiefs +2.5 Bills (Bills 1.46 Slight Overlay/On The Money) Balanced Action - Home favorite covers.
• Tampa +2.5 Houston (HOU 2.7 On The Money - Win by just 2 points - missed cover by half point) - Road dog covers.

Key Matchup

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik vs. South Carolina defensive ends Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart. Klubnik was a mistake-prone passer a year ago in his first season as a starter. He has re-invented himself this year, completing 63% of his passes for 29 touchdowns and four interceptions. Klubnik will face a couple of the SEC's best pass rushers in Kennard and Stewart, who have combined for 25 tackles for loss and 18 sacks. The Gamecocks are second in the SEC in sacks this season with 39.

Players to Watch

South Carolina: QB LaNorris Sellers has steadily improved his poise and productivity during his team's five-game winning streak. Sellers, in his first year starting, has 13 of his 17 touchdowns the past five games and had his first two 300-yard passing games the last two weeks.

Clemson: LB Barrett Carter is a past All-American who's a finalist for the Butkus Award. He said he's not gotten past a 31-30 South Carolina comeback win at Clemson two years ago and is eager to make amends in his final regular-season game at home.

Fun Facts

• South Caorlina has only beaten Clemson once in the last nine meetings. 
• This series dates to 1896 when the schools first met in Columbia
• It's the seventh time overall the rivalry game has featured two ranked teams.