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Spring is on the horizon, with the calendar halfway through March, so what better time to look ahead to the best pro sports playoffs leading to the hardest trophy to win? It’s a peek at the NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs.
We’re not necessarily looking at favorites to win the Cup, rather those bubble teams just trying to qualify (records are through games of Monday, March 13th, or this writing).
Eastern Conference Bubble Teams
Six spots in the Eastern are solidified, featuring a half-dozen of the top nine teams in the NHL. It’s the league-leading Boston Bruins out in front, while the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolin Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers are playoff locks as well. Boston is a solid 7-2 (+350) favorite to hoist the hardware, according to Stanley Cup odds.
The Longshots
The Buffalo Sabres (33-28-5) and Washington Capitals (32-38-7) have 71 points each, while the Ottawa Senators (33-29-4) have 70. They are longshots to make the playoffs in the East, but still in contention.
Buffalo (18 percent) and Washington (11 percent) have the best probability among these longshots, Ottawa trailing at nine percent.
The Contenders
So, the three teams with the best chance of claiming the final two playoff spots are the Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders and Florida Panthers.
The Penguins (34-22-10) currently hold the first wild-card spot with 78 points to date, and have an 82 percent probability of making the playoffs. The Islanders (34-26-8) hold the second wild-card (76 points), 50-50 to have a chance at the Cup. The Panthers (33-27-7) have 73 points and a 29 percent shot of making the playoffs.
Pittsburgh has those two games in hand over the Islanders.
Western Conference Bubble Teams
There’s a far simpler picture in the Western Conference, 10 teams after eight spots.
It’s the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars leading their respective divisions, and it’s also safe to surmise the Los Angeles Kings and Minnesota Wild also get into the playoffs.
The Longshots
If the playoffs began this very day, both the Calgary Flames and the Nashville Predators would not participate.
Calgary (30-24-13), among the preseason choices to get deep in the postseason, have just an 11 percent shot of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Preds (33-24-7) have a 26 percent chance of qualifying, despite missing some key players and selling deadline assets.
The Contenders
A scant point separates the second-season Seattle Kraken (37-23-7), defending Cup champion Colorado Avalanche (37-22-6) and Edmonton Oilers (36-23-8), who are currently ranked fifth through seventh in the conference.
Colorado is leading the probability pool with a 97 percent chance, Seattle has a 94 percent sh\ot and the Connor McDavid-led Oilers have a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Winnipeg Jets (38-26-3) were competing with the Dallas Stars atop the Central Division, Now, they are in last playoff spot in the Western, but with a six-point cushion over the Predators and Flames. Winnipeg is sitting with an 85 percent chance of qualifying.
Colorado is the 5-2 (+250) choice to win the West, as per NHL conference odds.
Who’s In? Who’s Out? Who’s Asking?
In the Western Conference, the eight teams in the current playoff positions are all going to make the playoffs. That’s barring some sort of catastrophic event, or a miraculous run by either Calgary, Nashville of both. With neither having exhibited any hint of putting together a run, that’s not probable.
In the Eastern, with two games in hand over the Islanders and one over the Panthers, the Pens-who haven’t missed the playoffs since 2007 (Sidney Crosby’s second season)-seem destined to continue that streak. They will be one of our picks, despite an awful defense.
We like the Sabres to challenge the Islanders in the final wild-card spot, more so than the Capitals and Panthers.
Summarizing, the “bubble” teams we see making the Stanley Cup playoffs are the Edmonton Oilers, Winnipeg Jets, Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
